Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Texas?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.3K
$-3.3K
0.7¢ → 0.1¢
-78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $900 | $-3.4K | 43% 554-734 (1288) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.9¢ | $419.83 | $416.1 | -$3.63 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $10 | $15 | +$5 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $0.31 | $9.05 | -$0.25 | — 0-10 (10) |
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.86 | $2.79 | +$0.93 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.11 | $0.11 | +$22.53 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$900
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
43%
554-734 (1288)
Invested
$419.83
Value
$416.1
PnL
-$3.63
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$15
PnL
+$5
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$9.05
PnL
-$0.25
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$2.79
PnL
+$0.93
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$22.53
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.