Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.3¢

-63% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares625,085

Combined PnL$-2.7K

No1 trader

Total Value$264.9

Total Shares265

Combined PnL-$2.27

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$1.5K	$-2.8K	43% 553-730 (1283)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.8¢	$267.38	$264.9	-$2.27	45% 2054-2465 (4519)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$53.98	$61.92	+$14.6	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.7	$0.5	+$34.32	36% 15508-27510 (43018)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.52	$0.17	-$0.35	— 0-10 (10)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

43%

553-730 (1283)

poposub

Invested

$267.38

Value

$264.9

PnL

-$2.27

Record

45%

2054-2465 (4519)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.98

Value

$61.92

PnL

+$14.6

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$34.32

Record

36%

15508-27510 (43018)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.35

Record

—

0-10 (10)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.