Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $981 held · ends Nov 3

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$981.32

Combined PnL

$56.85

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$712.18

Total Shares817

Combined PnL-$95.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$269.14

Total Shares3,433

Combined PnL+$152.69

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 94.3¢	$497.87	$490.23	-$1.16	20% 308-1212 (1520)
balthazar	Noavg 96.8¢	$282.21	$186.59	-$95.62	61% 21044-13396 (34440)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$20.94	$161.44	+$140.5	36% 15393-27456 (42849)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$95.17	$104.1	+$8.92	43% 552-726 (1278)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$31.22	$32	+$0.78	45% 2053-2461 (4514)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.33	$3.6	+$3.27	77% 259-76 (335)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$21.07	$3.37	+$0.17	57% 13663-10453 (24116)

Istaroth

Invested

$497.87

Value

$490.23

PnL

-$1.16

Record

20%

308-1212 (1520)

balthazar

Invested

$282.21

Value

$186.59

PnL

-$95.62

Record

61%

21044-13396 (34440)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$20.94

Value

$161.44

PnL

+$140.5

Record

36%

15393-27456 (42849)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.17

Value

$104.1

PnL

+$8.92

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

poposub<$100

Invested

$31.22

Value

$32

PnL

+$0.78

Record

45%

2053-2461 (4514)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$3.27

Record

77%

259-76 (335)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.07

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.