Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.4K
-$306.83
0.7¢ → 0.7¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $3.9K | -$352.8 | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.5¢ | $319.12 | $317.97 | -$0.83 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $166.61 | $157.42 | +$27.21 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $4.92 | $1.02 | +$19.61 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.17 | $0.14 | -$0.03 | — 0-10 (10) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$352.8
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$319.12
Value
$317.97
PnL
-$0.83
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$166.61
Value
$157.42
PnL
+$27.21
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$19.61
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.03
Record
—
0-10 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.