Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Kansas?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$2.1K
$-2.7K
0.7¢ → 0.3¢
-63% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-33 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $1.5K | $-2.8K | 43% 554-734 (1288) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.8¢ | $471.52 | $467.94 | -$3.37 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $68.54 | $77.87 | +$18.69 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $0.78 | $32.7 | -$0.55 | — 0-10 (10) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yes | $4 | $4 | -$12.65 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $6.21 | $0.83 | +$13.64 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
43%
554-734 (1288)
Invested
$471.52
Value
$467.94
PnL
-$3.37
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$68.54
Value
$77.87
PnL
+$18.69
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$32.7
PnL
-$0.55
Record
—
0-10 (10)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
$4
PnL
-$12.65
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
Invested
$6.21
Value
$0.83
PnL
+$13.64
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.