Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$916.72

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.3¢

-57% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares617,920

Combined PnL-$914.68

No2 traders

Total Value$402.76

Total Shares403

Combined PnL-$2.05

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$3.3K	-$952.8	43% 554-734 (1288)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.6¢	$435.29	$392.78	-$1.99	45% 2054-2465 (4519)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$100.92	$98.45	+$11.23	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$0.18	$9.98	-$0.06	— 0-10 (10)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.7	$0.07	+$26.88	36% 15579-27522 (43101)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0.01	66% 413-210 (623)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$952.8

Record

43%

554-734 (1288)

poposub

Invested

$435.29

Value

$392.78

PnL

-$1.99

Record

45%

2054-2465 (4519)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.92

Value

$98.45

PnL

+$11.23

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100

Invested

$0.18

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

0-10 (10)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$26.88

Record

36%

15579-27522 (43101)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.