Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.1¢

-78% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$929.79

Total Shares626,001

Combined PnL$-3.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$425.01

Total Shares425

Combined PnL-$2.57

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$900	$-3.4K	43% 554-734 (1288)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.7¢	$419.08	$416.02	-$2.59	45% 2054-2465 (4519)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$141.96	$18.4	-$53.95	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.97	$8.99	+$0.01	— 0-10 (10)
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.3	$5.84	+$3.56	97% 2573-66 (2639)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$5.14	$3.43	-$1.14	61% 655-414 (1069)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$4.17	$2.09	-$2.09	66% 413-210 (623)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.92	$0.03	+$34.63	36% 15579-27522 (43101)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$900

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

43%

554-734 (1288)

poposub

Invested

$419.08

Value

$416.02

PnL

-$2.59

Record

45%

2054-2465 (4519)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$141.96

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$53.95

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

0-10 (10)

BunCaChamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$3.56

Record

97%

2573-66 (2639)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.14

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$1.14

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$2.09

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$34.63

Record

36%

15579-27522 (43101)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.