Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $893 held · ends Nov 3

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$892.97

Combined PnL

-$79.67

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 97.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$749.06

Total Shares924

Combined PnL-$158.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$143.91

Total Shares2,262

Combined PnL+$78.77

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 96.2¢	$401.1	$400.01	-$0.69	20% 308-1212 (1520)
balthazar	Noavg 97¢	$282.79	$188.05	-$94.74	61% 21044-13396 (34440)
LI lissartter	Noavg 96.2¢	$192.4	$129	-$63.4	42% 5214-7149 (12363)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$4.55	$86.89	+$82.34	36% 15393-27456 (42849)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$60	$51	-$9	56% 15296-11843 (27139)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 98¢	$31.61	$32	+$0.39	45% 2053-2461 (4514)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.38	$3.66	+$3.28	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.21	$2.37	+$2.16	77% 259-76 (335)

Istaroth

Invested

$401.1

Value

$400.01

PnL

-$0.69

Record

20%

308-1212 (1520)

balthazar

Invested

$282.79

Value

$188.05

PnL

-$94.74

Record

61%

21044-13396 (34440)

lissartter

Invested

$192.4

Value

$129

PnL

-$63.4

Record

42%

5214-7149 (12363)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$86.89

PnL

+$82.34

Record

36%

15393-27456 (42849)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$51

PnL

-$9

Record

56%

15296-11843 (27139)

poposub<$100

Invested

$31.61

Value

$32

PnL

+$0.39

Record

45%

2053-2461 (4514)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$3.28

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$2.16

Record

77%

259-76 (335)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.