Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$5.0K
$262.3
0.7¢ → 0.7¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$247.2 | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.3¢ | $318.46 | $285.97 | -$0.27 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $215.78 | $136.1 | -$38.33 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $43.28 | $54.36 | +$11.08 | 41% 1963-2768 (4731) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $19.62 | $19.65 | +$0.03 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $3.43 | $0.49 | +$42.59 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$247.2
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$318.46
Value
$285.97
PnL
-$0.27
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$215.78
Value
$136.1
PnL
-$38.33
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$43.28
Value
$54.36
PnL
+$11.08
Record
41%
1963-2768 (4731)
Invested
$19.62
Value
$19.65
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$0.49
PnL
+$42.59
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.