Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 95¢ · $896 held · ends Nov 3

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$896.46

Combined PnL

$220.61

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$408.03

Total Shares1,149

Combined PnL+$401.54

No1 trader

Total Value$357.98

Total Shares555

Combined PnL-$180.93

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI milkteabobaCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$50.55	$372.54	+$368.02	67% 33-16 (49)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 97.1¢	$538.91	$357.98	-$180.93	98% 2553-65 (2618)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$445.86	$130.46	-$10.24	28% 280-709 (989)
└ No leg	Noavg 97.5¢	$127.2	$84.15	-$49.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.5¢	$7.11	$46.31	+$39.2
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.7	$24.84	+$24.14	35% 14791-26919 (41710)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.26	$10.65	+$9.39	53% 6290-5520 (11810)

milkteabobaCTR

Yes

Invested

$50.55

Value

$372.54

PnL

+$368.02

Record

67%

33-16 (49)

BunCaCham

Invested

$538.91

Value

$357.98

PnL

-$180.93

Record

98%

2553-65 (2618)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$445.86

Value

$130.46

PnL

-$10.24

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

Both legs:

No$127.297.5¢-$49.44

Yes$7.115.5¢+$39.2

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$24.84

PnL

+$24.14

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$9.39

Record

53%

6290-5520 (11810)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.