Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$1.2K
$-3.3K
0.7¢ → 0.3¢
-63% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $900 | $-3.4K | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.8¢ | $267.33 | $264.97 | -$2.15 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $63.19 | $69.63 | +$17.67 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.57 | $0.86 | +$0.29 | 41% 1963-2768 (4731) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.9 | $0.17 | -$0.73 | — 0-10 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.78 | $0.05 | +$20.28 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.02 | -$0.01 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$900
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$267.33
Value
$264.97
PnL
-$2.15
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$63.19
Value
$69.63
PnL
+$17.67
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.86
PnL
+$0.29
Record
41%
1963-2768 (4731)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.73
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$20.28
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.