Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.2K
$-3.3K
0.7¢ → 0.1¢
-78% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $900 | $-3.4K | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.8¢ | $267.41 | $265.04 | -$2.27 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $43.99 | $18.84 | -$15.68 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $3.1 | $4.65 | +$1.55 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.2 | $0.3 | +$0.1 | 78% 266-77 (343) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.78 | $0.01 | +$34.75 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$900
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$267.41
Value
$265.04
PnL
-$2.27
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$43.99
Value
$18.84
PnL
-$15.68
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$1.55
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
78%
266-77 (343)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$34.75
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.