Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.4¢

-49% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares630,022

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No1 trader

Total Value$229.97

Total Shares230

Combined PnL-$1.46

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$2.1K	$-2.2K	43% 553-730 (1283)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.7¢	$266.68	$229.97	-$1.46	45% 2054-2465 (4519)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$109.85	$86.46	+$5.07	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$3.23	$11.31	+$8.08	41% 1963-2768 (4731)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yes	$6.3	$6.3	+$0	61% 655-414 (1069)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.47	$0.83	+$0.36	66% 413-210 (623)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.88	$0.11	+$34.75	36% 15508-27510 (43018)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.15	$0.07	-$0.08	— 0-10 (10)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

43%

553-730 (1283)

poposub

Invested

$266.68

Value

$229.97

PnL

-$1.46

Record

45%

2054-2465 (4519)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.85

Value

$86.46

PnL

+$5.07

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$8.08

Record

41%

1963-2768 (4731)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.36

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$34.75

Record

36%

15508-27510 (43018)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

0-10 (10)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.