Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$4.9K
$300.88
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$247.2 | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.6¢ | $266.77 | $264.93 | -$1.09 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $160.84 | $130.82 | +$14.29 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.6 | $2.57 | +$40.47 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.34 | $0.37 | +$0.02 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.23 | $0.22 | -$0.01 | — 0-10 (10) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$247.2
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$266.77
Value
$264.93
PnL
-$1.09
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$160.84
Value
$130.82
PnL
+$14.29
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$40.47
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0.02
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
0-10 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.