Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$921.53

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.5¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares618,901

Combined PnL-$920.17

No1 trader

Total Value$264.96

Total Shares265

Combined PnL-$1.35

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$3.3K	-$952.8	43% 553-730 (1283)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.6¢	$266.85	$264.96	-$1.35	45% 2054-2465 (4519)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$101.71	$103.08	+$11	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$4.61	$0.75	+$21.65	36% 15508-27510 (43018)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.08	$0.06	-$0.02	— 0-10 (10)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$952.8

Record

43%

553-730 (1283)

poposub

Invested

$266.85

Value

$264.96

PnL

-$1.35

Record

45%

2054-2465 (4519)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.71

Value

$103.08

PnL

+$11

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$21.65

Record

36%

15508-27510 (43018)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

0-10 (10)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.