Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$5.2K
$302.53
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$247.2 | 43% 554-734 (1288) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.5¢ | $470.3 | $467.93 | -$1.63 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $248.38 | $204.55 | +$26.69 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $0.18 | $32.46 | -$0.02 | — 0-10 (10) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $8.41 | $9.01 | +$0.6 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.19 | $0.86 | +$29.69 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$247.2
Record
43%
554-734 (1288)
Invested
$470.3
Value
$467.93
PnL
-$1.63
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$248.38
Value
$204.55
PnL
+$26.69
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$32.46
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
0-10 (10)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$8.41
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0.6
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$0.86
PnL
+$29.69
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.