Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$5.1K
$301.09
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$247.2 | 43% 554-734 (1288) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.6¢ | $366.84 | $363.96 | -$1.4 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $206.81 | $190.96 | +$24.15 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $0.61 | $32.87 | -$0.04 | — 0-10 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $2.72 | $2.89 | +$31.18 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$247.2
Record
43%
554-734 (1288)
Invested
$366.84
Value
$363.96
PnL
-$1.4
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$206.81
Value
$190.96
PnL
+$24.15
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$32.87
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$31.18
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.