Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.7K
-$919.58
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-50% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $3.3K | -$952.8 | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.5¢ | $266.66 | $264.96 | -$1.17 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $120.25 | $103.33 | +$17.04 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $19.62 | $1.33 | +$17.23 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.71 | $0.82 | +$0.12 | 66% 413-210 (623) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$952.8
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$266.66
Value
$264.96
PnL
-$1.17
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$120.25
Value
$103.33
PnL
+$17.04
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$19.62
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$17.23
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0.12
Record
66%
413-210 (623)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.