1win FDV above $70M one day after launch?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $48K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$47.9K
-$11.68
94.6¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scout | Noavg 98.8¢ | $21.7K | $21.0K | -$646.08 | 90% 762-81 (843) |
 wagwanshawty | Noavg 98.9¢ | $17.4K | $17.5K | +$22.68 | — 10-5 (15) |
 CoinTrick | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.9K | $6.0K | +$14.16 | 97% 3333-88 (3421) |
LU luck00004 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.9K | $3.4K | +$575 | 48% 32-34 (66) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 50.6¢ | $245 | $94.07 | +$22.55 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
scoutInvested
$21,670.12
Value
$21.0K
PnL
-$646.08
Record
90%
762-81 (843)
wagwanshawtyInvested
$17,430.37
Value
$17.5K
PnL
+$22.68
Record
—
10-5 (15)
CoinTrickInvested
$5,936.83
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$14.16
Record
97%
3333-88 (3421)
Invested
$2,850
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$575
Record
48%
32-34 (66)
Invested
$245
Value
$94.07
PnL
+$22.55
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.