1win FDV above $45M one day after launch?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.5K
-$439.87
95.5¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Yesavg 93¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$410 | 53% 4589-4006 (8595) |
 CoinTrick | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$2.75 | 97% 3333-88 (3421) |
LU luck00004CTR | Noavg 32.2¢ | $774 | $660 | -$114 | 48% 32-34 (66) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 30.6¢ | $215.25 | $66.72 | +$81.47 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $13.64 | $13.5 | -$0.09 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,860
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$410
Record
53%
4589-4006 (8595)
CoinTrickInvested
$1,269.04
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$2.75
Record
97%
3333-88 (3421)
Invested
$774
Value
$660
PnL
-$114
Record
48%
32-34 (66)
Invested
$215.25
Value
$66.72
PnL
+$81.47
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$13.64
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.09
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.