Polymarket market | PolyConsensus

Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yas Lions, while the market favors Yes (63%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yas Lions (29%) · $14K held

Yes63¢UAE Bulls37¢

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Yas Lions

Consensus Traders

Yas Lions 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$114.92

Smart Money Signal

Yas Lions

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

UAE Bulls37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yas Lions2 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares14,724

Combined PnL+$848.51

UAE Bulls4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,924

Combined PnL-$733.58

Yes1 trader

Total Value$164.3

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$0

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Yas Lionsavg 56.5¢	$9.4K	$10.3K	+$844.81	34% 10-19 (29)
NA nanir488CTR	UAE Bullsavg 49.8¢	$2.8K	$2.1K	-$731.14	46% 13-15 (28)
tradecraftARB<$100	Yas Lionsavg 58.2¢	$880.63	$934.58	+$53.96	30% 335-776 (1111)
└ Yas Lions leg	Yas Lionsavg 58.2¢	$600.29	$675.81	+$75.53
└ UAE Bulls leg	UAE Bullsavg 37.4¢	$280.34	$258.77	-$21.57
MO mouzsynapse	Yesavg 53¢	$164.3	$164.3	+$0	40% 117-177 (294)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	UAE Bullsavg 43¢	$642.79	$143.69	-$1.72	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ UAE Bulls leg	UAE Bullsavg 43¢	$104.85	$102.41	-$29.34
└ Yas Lions leg	Yas Lionsavg 55¢	$39.16	$41.28	+$27.62
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	UAE Bullsavg 45.9¢	$89.72	$79.51	-$10.21	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
└ UAE Bulls leg	UAE Bullsavg 45.9¢	$69.07	$51.92	-$17.15
└ Yas Lions leg	Yas Lionsavg 49¢	$20.65	$27.6	+$6.95
SU suntoriCTR<$100	UAE Bullsavg 37¢	$47.96	$44.48	-$0.86	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yas Lionsavg 50.2¢	$34.83	$38.53	+$3.7	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	UAE Bullsavg 43.4¢	$30.31	$30.07	-$0.25	38% 544-884 (1428)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	UAE Bullsavg 45.9¢	$15.93	$9.67	-$1.34	48% 2074-2236 (4310)

midwicket72

Yas Lions

Invested

$9,421.18

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$844.81

Record

34%

10-19 (29)

nanir488CTR

UAE Bulls

Invested

$2,842.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$731.14

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

tradecraftARB<$100

Yas Lions

Invested

$880.63

Value

$934.58

PnL

+$53.96

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

Both legs:

Yas Lions$600.2958.2¢+$75.53

UAE Bulls$280.3437.4¢-$21.57

mouzsynapse

Yes

Invested

$164.3

Value

$164.3

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

117-177 (294)

NotJumpARB<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$642.79

Value

$143.69

PnL

-$1.72

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

UAE Bulls$104.8543¢-$29.34

Yas Lions$39.1655¢+$27.62

FlaznorpARB<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$89.72

Value

$79.51

PnL

-$10.21

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Both legs:

UAE Bulls$69.0745.9¢-$17.15

Yas Lions$20.6549¢+$6.95

suntoriCTR<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$47.96

Value

$44.48

PnL

-$0.86

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yas Lions

Invested

$34.83

Value

$38.53

PnL

+$3.7

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$30.31

Value

$30.07

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$15.93

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$1.34

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Smart Money Signal

Yas Lions

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.