Consensus PnL -$105 · win rate 69% (27–12, n=39) · PM monthly #131 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$105.2
Record
27W / 12L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 39 settled
Batting Avg
49.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#818
Source
PM monthly #131
Record (90 d)
7/9 · 78%
Trades
8
Markets
65
Volume
$46.1K
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Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 8 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $25K · now 98¢with the consensus (88% of 57)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $24K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (89% of 47)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $24K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (78% of 49)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $24K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (90% of 21)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $24K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (87% of 53)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $24K · now 96¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (87% of 60)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $24K · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 86)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No $23K · now 93¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (78% of 23)
Specialties
32 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 73¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where laidaodao's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 80% of 15 at an average 88¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 0% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 92% of 24)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.