No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #441 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #441
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $367K · now 81¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (59% of 118)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $280K · now 81¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (55% of 92)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $142K · now 69¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (57% of 81)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $46K · now 69¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (52% of 55)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 91¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where dubdubdub2's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.