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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| operationcastle | bamesjond | rocroi | MEPP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 88% (130–18, n=148) | 67% (28–14, n=42) | 65% (345–184, n=529) |
| Consensus PnL | — | -$572K | $149K | $557K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #896 | Hand-picked | PM monthly #460 | was PM monthly #959 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 79% (65 of 82 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | Entertainment −18 pts, n=11 |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 95% of 1059 at avg 92¢, ROI +2% | 58% of 36 at avg 47¢, ROI +2% | 66% of 767 at avg 62¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 5% (won 12% of 52) | 36% (won 23% of 13) | 20% (won 14% of 151) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 1% (won 63% of 8) | 8% (won 67% of 3) | 11% (won 34% of 82) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 3% (won 77% of 30) | 33% (won 67% of 12) | 19% (won 66% of 144) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 92% (won 100% of 969) | 22% (won 100% of 8) | 51% (won 93% of 390) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | operationcastle | bamesjond | rocroi | MEPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? same side · consensus No | — | No $6.8K | — | No $6.0K |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? same side · consensus No | — | No $1.2K | — | No $98 |