← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| nobody2somebody | melganis | machinelearned | Bonereaper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 79% (1034–278, n=1312) | 65% (2219–1202, n=3421) | 86% (43246–6849, n=50095) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $56K | $35K | $14.9M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #924 | Hand-picked | PM monthly #538 | PM monthly #273 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 71% (29 of 41 open) | 100% (3 of 3 open) | 50% (5 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | Crypto −2 pts, n=71 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 74% of 1660 at avg 69¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 1295 at avg 73¢, ROI +21% | 98% of 36616 at avg 67¢, ROI +24% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 20% (won 7% of 324) | 3% (won 64% of 42) | 4% (won 85% of 1370) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 6% (won 41% of 99) | 6% (won 93% of 75) | 16% (won 95% of 5840) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 8% (won 70% of 125) | 28% (won 100% of 360) | 35% (won 98% of 12695) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 67% (won 97% of 1112) | 63% (won 100% of 818) | 46% (won 100% of 16711) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | nobody2somebody | melganis | machinelearned | Bonereaper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET opposite sides · consensus Down | — | — | Down $476 | Up $11 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET opposite sides · consensus Down | — | — | Down $8 | Up $47 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET same side · consensus Up | — | — | Up $415 | Up $47 |