PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
luckycat8888880xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941tradecraft
Record (consensus markets)no settled market89% (48–6, n=54)49% (2015–2122, n=4137)
Consensus PnL—-$54K$912K
Tracked asPM monthly #897Hand-pickedPM monthly #299
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position100% (14 of 14 open)40% (2 of 5 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • Tech +9 pts n=10, ROI +8%
  • Tennis +7 pts n=1516, ROI +4%
  • Soccer +7 pts n=521, ROI +4%
  • NFL +11 pts n=102, ROI +19%
Weakest topic—Geopolitics −1 pts, n=96—
Settled positions, side won100% of 3 at avg 48¢, ROI +55%84% of 190 at avg 84¢, ROI −2%57% of 2284 at avg 50¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢0%6% (won 8% of 12)31% (won 10% of 707)
Entries 30–50¢33% (won 100% of 1)3% (won 40% of 5)18% (won 47% of 401)
Entries 50–70¢67% (won 100% of 2)9% (won 56% of 18)19% (won 77% of 426)
Entries 70¢ and up0%82% (won 95% of 155)33% (won 96% of 750)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.