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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| mombil | noreasapa | SmallFishInWhaleStomach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (1079–754, n=1833) | 93% (3539–260, n=3799) | 89% (124–15, n=139) |
| Consensus PnL | $498K | $139K | $97K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #857 + pinned | was PM monthly #977 | PM monthly #961 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (51 of 73 open) | 40% (2 of 5 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | Science −3 pts, n=22 | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=45 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 2092 at avg 41¢, ROI +2% | 93% of 3591 at avg 92¢, ROI +1% | 86% of 157 at avg 80¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 10% of 1013) | 6% (won 13% of 212) | 8% (won 8% of 13) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 52% of 247) | 2% (won 51% of 55) | 8% (won 62% of 13) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 71% of 252) | 1% (won 72% of 39) | 9% (won 64% of 14) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 28% (won 95% of 580) | 91% (won 100% of 3285) | 75% (won 100% of 117) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | mombil | noreasapa | SmallFishInWhaleStomach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1 | Yes $5.0K | — |