← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| X1234567 | yen4u | melganis | machinelearned | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 91% (679–64, n=743) | 79% (1030–277, n=1307) | 65% (2206–1190, n=3396) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $67K | $55K | $35K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #996 | PM monthly #520 | Hand-picked | PM monthly #578 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 91% (43 of 47 open) | 73% (30 of 41 open) | 33% (1 of 3 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | Crypto −2 pts, n=71 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 5 at avg 49¢, ROI +15% | 94% of 613 at avg 90¢, ROI +3% | 74% of 1660 at avg 69¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 1295 at avg 73¢, ROI +21% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 100% of 1) | 4% (won 26% of 27) | 20% (won 7% of 324) | 3% (won 64% of 42) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 40% (won 100% of 2) | 2% (won 57% of 14) | 6% (won 41% of 99) | 6% (won 93% of 75) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 5% (won 80% of 30) | 8% (won 70% of 125) | 28% (won 100% of 360) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 100% of 2) | 88% (won 99% of 542) | 67% (won 97% of 1112) | 63% (won 100% of 818) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | X1234567 | yen4u | melganis | machinelearned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? opposite sides · consensus No | — | No $14K | Yes $134 | — |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? opposite sides · consensus No | — | No $29 | Yes $42 | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? same side · consensus No | — | No $16K | No $160 | — |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? same side · consensus No | — | No $12K | No $544 | — |
| Trump out as President before 2027? same side · consensus No | — | No $4.1K | No $190 | — |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? same side · consensus No | — | No $976 | No $807 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? same side · consensus No | — | No $1.5K | No $198 | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? same side · consensus No | — | No $38 | No $283 | — |