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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BlackPeopleDontRecycle | tryingout1 | bredxiao | LuckyWin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 88% (50–7, n=57) | 65% (20–11, n=31) | 88% (735–102, n=837) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $13K | $9.6K | $30K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #846 | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #975 | was PM monthly #579 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (5 of 5 open) | 100% (7 of 7 open) | no open consensus position | 60% (3 of 5 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=55 | Elections −3 pts, n=18 | — | NBA −7 pts, n=48 |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 166 at avg 80¢, ROI +1% | 87% of 116 at avg 83¢, ROI +4% | 89% of 28 at avg 69¢, ROI +15% | 88% of 789 at avg 88¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 0% of 5) | 8% (won 0% of 9) | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 7% (won 8% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 25% of 8) | 2% (won 0% of 2) | 14% (won 75% of 4) | 4% (won 42% of 33) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 54% of 24) | 7% (won 88% of 8) | 21% (won 83% of 6) | 6% (won 55% of 49) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 78% (won 91% of 129) | 84% (won 97% of 97) | 61% (won 94% of 17) | 83% (won 99% of 654) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BlackPeopleDontRecycle | tryingout1 | bredxiao | LuckyWin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $32K | No $4.8K | — | — |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? same side · consensus No | No $454 | No $9.8K | — | — |