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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BikesAreTheBikesgmpm2juice-fruitlastminwin
Record (consensus markets)no settled market100% (1–0, n=1)100% (1–0, n=1)86% (12–2, n=14)
Consensus PnL—$254K$152K$285K
Tracked asHand-pickedPM monthly #17PM monthly #18PM monthly #102
Sides with the consensus54% (56 of 103 open)0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position72% (42 of 58 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won————
Entries under 30¢————
Entries 30–50¢————
Entries 50–70¢————
Entries 70¢ and up————

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBikesAreTheBikesgmpm2juice-fruitlastminwin
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $122——No $120K
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $71——No $108K
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $55——No $54K
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $12——No $47K
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $112——No $4.9K
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $667——Yes $1.9K
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $32——Yes $2.0K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
same side · consensus No
Yes $2——Yes $195
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $27——Yes $86