PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
segment3uninformedflowwMEPP
Record (consensus markets)71% (5–2, n=7)66% (16430–8405, n=24835)65% (345–184, n=529)
Consensus PnL$11K$31K$557K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #832PM monthly #432was PM monthly #959 + pinned
Sides with the consensus75% (18 of 24 open)63% (24 of 38 open)79% (65 of 82 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Entertainment −18 pts, n=11
Settled positions, side won100% of 3 at avg 85¢, ROI +22%66% of 5040 at avg 62¢, ROI +11%66% of 767 at avg 62¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢0%16% (won 12% of 794)20% (won 14% of 151)
Entries 30–50¢0%16% (won 35% of 788)11% (won 34% of 82)
Entries 50–70¢0%17% (won 66% of 870)19% (won 66% of 144)
Entries 70¢ and up100% (won 100% of 3)51% (won 92% of 2588)51% (won 93% of 390)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketsegment3uninformedflowwMEPP
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $210—No $19K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $12K—Yes $1.3K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.8K—Yes $1.9K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
same side · consensus No
Yes $540—Yes $1.8K