PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market60% (112–75, n=187)63% (5–3, n=8)
Consensus PnL—-$225K$52K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #669Hand-pickedPM monthly #333
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)100% (6 of 6 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Economy −3 pts, n=28—
Settled positions, side won—47% of 294 at avg 46¢, ROI −2%71% of 7 at avg 40¢, ROI +49%
Entries under 30¢—48% (won 3% of 140)14% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢—2% (won 50% of 6)57% (won 75% of 4)
Entries 50–70¢—6% (won 61% of 18)29% (won 50% of 2)
Entries 70¢ and up—44% (won 93% of 130)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.