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9E
No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #647 · holds 1 consensus position
0x9e9fb94f...aec81d38Polymarket
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #647
Record (90 d)
6/10 · 60%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $30K · now 89¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (52% of 68)
Specialties
15 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 49¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where AMike's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 0% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 80% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.