Consensus PnL -$562K · win rate 49% (20–21, n=41) · PM monthly #278 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-561.6K
Record
20W / 21L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 41 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1250
Source
PM monthly #278
Record (90 d)
20/41 · 49%
Trades
0
Markets
44
Volume
$3.6M
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Specialties
41 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 56¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xcfe8f6...373a6c's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 50% of 40 at an average 55¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 33% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 45% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 42% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 67% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.