Consensus PnL $4.8K · win rate 56% (5–4, n=9) · was PM monthly #672 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.8K
Record
5W / 4L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 9 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#934
Source
PM monthly #672
Record (90 d)
5/5 · 100%
Trades
26
Markets
15
Volume
$73.5K
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Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 6 on the consensus side (33%)- Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes $30K · now 99¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?No $20K · now 99¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (66% of 29)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $250 · now 2¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $175 · now 1¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $90 · now 1¢ · in at 87¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $74 · now 1¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 48¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Rene22's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.