Consensus PnL -$35K · win rate 44% (7–9, n=16) · PM monthly #527 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-34.7K
Record
7W / 9L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 16 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1407
Source
PM monthly #527
Record (90 d)
7/13 · 54%
Trades
0
Markets
16
Volume
$419.7K
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Specialties
13 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 57¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x8861bc...b039f7's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 62%(won 50% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 15%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.