Consensus PnL $120K · win rate 12% (3–23, n=26) · PM monthly #879 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$120.1K
Record
3W / 23L
Win Rate
12.0%
of 26 settled
Batting Avg
80.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2724
Source
PM monthly #879
Record (90 d)
3/7 · 43%
Trades
787
Markets
36
Volume
$135.2K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $16K · now 65¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
19 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 24¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 36% of 14 · avg entry 25¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 74%(won 14% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.