Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 33% (2–4, n=6) · PM monthly #446 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$23.4K
Record
2W / 4L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 6 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2590
Source
PM monthly #446
Record (90 d)
3/9 · 33%
Trades
0
Markets
9
Volume
$204.2K
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Specialties
7 settled consensus markets · held side won 29% at an average entry of 48¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where pau1og1's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 57%(won 25% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 33% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.