Consensus PnL $109K · win rate 55% (52–43, n=95) · PM monthly #518 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$109.1K
Record
52W / 43L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 95 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#949
Source
PM monthly #518
Record (90 d)
20/35 · 57%
Trades
22
Markets
109
Volume
$430.3K
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 November 2-8?Yes $2.5K · now 13¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 6?Yes $2.5K · now 11¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 November 2-8?Yes $46 · now 1¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
89 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 46¢- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 57% of 84 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 33% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 40% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 67% of 43)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.