Consensus PnL $3.6K · win rate 100% (2–0, n=2) · PM monthly #630 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$3.6K
Record
2W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 2 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#36
Source
PM monthly #630
Record (90 d)
1/2 · 50%
Trades
403
Markets
2
Volume
$55.2K
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Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 29¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where hideki.hirata's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 50%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.