Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $404 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 33%
$403.67
$5.42
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 98.9¢ | $1.3K | $394.53 | +$1.04 | 66% 1964-1020 (2984) |
EL ElonSimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $23.36 | $6.74 | +$4.13 | 38% 165-270 (435) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.65 | $1.91 | +$0.26 | 36% 12781-22373 (35154) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.