Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.3K
$629.05
77.6¢ → 96.7¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Yesavg 80¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$346.71 | 68% 1407-666 (2073) |
 cat-dog | Yesavg 76.8¢ | $537.82 | $605.5 | +$102.68 | 73% 72-26 (98) |
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $366.38 | $546.59 | +$180.21 | 57% 243-187 (430) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $11.7 | $11.7 | +$0 | 17% 3034-14640 (17674) |
 NostdamCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $3.85 | $3.3 | -$0.55 | 54% 1390-1195 (2585) |
The-JokerInvested
$1,976.04
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$346.71
Record
68%
1407-666 (2073)
cat-dogInvested
$537.82
Value
$605.5
PnL
+$102.68
Record
73%
72-26 (98)
Invested
$366.38
Value
$546.59
PnL
+$180.21
Record
57%
243-187 (430)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$11.7
Value
$11.7
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
3034-14640 (17674)
NostdamCTR<$100Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$0.55
Record
54%
1390-1195 (2585)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.