6. Cross-market consistency
When the winner market and the spread market of one match agree, is the consensus more often right?
Definition
For a game-winner market with a consensus, the sibling markets of the same event that name a team (spread, handicap, esports maps) and had a consensus of 5+ holders at 60 %+ before the entry hour; a sibling agrees when its consensus outcome names the same team. Variants: every mappable sibling agrees, at least one disagrees, no mappable sibling. Spread markets: the winner market's consensus agrees, disagrees, or none.
Baseline for every comparison: the plain consensus on the same markets (5+ tracked holders, 60 %+ on one side, price 0.05–0.95, first signal, held to resolution), 1 ¢ half-spread plus Polymarket's taker fee; $1 a trade.
Mean return per trade, with 95 % intervals
One marker per window: circle = A (curated wallets, Mar–Apr 2026, clean), square = B (all tracked wallets, Oct 2026, provisional, drift ranges dropped), diamond = pooled. Variants with fewer than 30 trades in a window are left out of the chart; the table below has every number.
Every variant
| Variant | Expected | Window A | Window B | Pooled A + B | IS / OOS (pooled) | vs its baseline (pooled) | Guard | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6a winner market: every mappable sibling agrees entry filter, decided at the signal | better | +1.9 % [−30.8, +41.8] n = 35, hit 63 %, price 0.62 | −16.0 % [−39.4, +8.1] n = 39, hit 59 %, price 0.61 | −7.5 % [−28.8, +16.7] n = 74, hit 61 %, price 0.62 | IS −10.5 % (40) OOS −4.0 % (34) | −3.7 [−25.7, +20.2] points vs the dropped trades, p = 0.6389 | no | nothing |
| 6b winner market: >= 1 sibling disagrees entry filter, decided at the signal | worse | n = 16 (under 30) | −20.6 % [−47.3, +7.6] n = 37, hit 51 %, price 0.59 | −11.5 % [−33.8, +12.7] n = 53, hit 58 %, price 0.63 | IS −3.5 % (26) OOS −19.1 % (27) | −7.6 [−31.7, +17.0] points vs the dropped trades, p = 0.7468 | no | nothing |
| 6c winner market: no mappable sibling (control) entry filter, decided at the signal | control | −1.3 % [−6.4, +3.7] n = 1,348, hit 62 %, price 0.60 | −7.4 % [−13.3, −1.1] n = 866, hit 58 %, price 0.58 | −3.7 % [−7.5, +0.1] n = 2,214, hit 60 %, price 0.59 | IS −1.9 % (1,295) OOS −6.4 % (691) | +5.5 [−11.7, +21.4] points vs the dropped trades, p = 0.2722 | no | nothing |
| 6d spread market: the winner market agrees entry filter, decided at the signal | better | n = 26 (under 30) | +3.2 % [−32.0, +35.9] n = 46, hit 57 %, price 0.53 | −20.0 % [−45.7, +8.0] n = 72, hit 43 %, price 0.52 | IS −28.6 % (36) OOS −12.3 % (34) | −16.0 [−45.7, +11.2] points vs the dropped trades, p = 0.8676 | no | nothing |
| 6e spread market: the winner market disagrees entry filter, decided at the signal | worse | n = 14 (under 30) | −1.3 % [−33.7, +33.4] n = 35, hit 57 %, price 0.52 | +2.2 % [−28.1, +32.9] n = 49, hit 57 %, price 0.51 | IS +10.2 % (19) OOS −4.8 % (29) | +9.5 [−23.0, +42.6] points vs the dropped trades, p = 0.2892 | no | nothing |
| 6f spread market: no winner-market consensus (control) entry filter, decided at the signal | control | −16.4 % [−34.4, +0.8] n = 102, hit 45 %, price 0.50 | −0.3 % [−11.2, +12.7] n = 264, hit 57 %, price 0.55 | −4.8 % [−14.3, +5.2] n = 366, hit 54 %, price 0.54 | IS −4.5 % (156) OOS −4.8 % (201) | +6.2 [−14.0, +27.5] points vs the dropped trades, p = 0.2872 | no | nothing |
What this data can and cannot show
Can: Whether agreement across a match's markets adds information beyond one market's head count.
Cannot: Totals (over/under name no team), three-way soccer markets (Yes/No outcomes), and matches with only one tracked market.
Caveats that apply to every signal
- Only tracked wallets' fills exist, from when the site started tracking them; the replay is closer to the chain than to what the site displayed (no Polymarket position overrides, merges missing May–Oct 2026).
- Window B's fill times run early in parts of October 2026; the affected ranges are dropped and the rest is not proven clean. Its numbers are provisional until the repaired export is in.
- Prices are the last tracked fill, not the order book (median error 0.5 ¢, p90 up to 16 ¢ on fast markets); entries happen on the hour (5-minute steps in play).
- The windows are 7 and 3 weeks long; effects of a few points cannot pass a guard over 40 variants there. A failed guard is not evidence of no effect — it is the absence of evidence.
- Nothing here is trading advice. Past replays, even clean ones, do not pay future trades.