Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$165.86

Combined PnL

$0.17

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$165.72

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$46.89	$46.92	+$0.03	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.95	+$0.04	27% 933-2514 (3447)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.95	+$0.01	40% 1453-2158 (3611)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.95	$29.95	+$0	16% 63-330 (393)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.97	+$0.03	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$8.98	$8.98	+$0	79% 348-95 (443)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.08	$0.14	+$0.06	12% 20-153 (173)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$46.89

Value

$46.92

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$0.04

Record

27%

933-2514 (3447)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

1453-2158 (3611)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

63-330 (393)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.98

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$0

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.06

Record

12%

20-153 (173)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.