Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$165.67
$0.06
99.8¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $46.89 | $46.91 | +$0.02 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.93 | $29.94 | +$0.01 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 25% 96-283 (379) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.96 | +$0.02 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.97 | $8.98 | +$0.01 | 79% 348-95 (443) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$46.89
Value
$46.91
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
Invested
$29.93
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.01
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
96-283 (379)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$8.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
79%
348-95 (443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.