Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$207.61
$0.63
98.3¢ → 97.3¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $59.16 | $59.16 | +$0 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $45.96 | $46.34 | +$0.38 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $43.93 | $43.93 | +$0 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $29.25 | $29.58 | +$0.33 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.76 | $19.72 | -$0.04 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $8.92 | $8.87 | -$0.04 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
Invested
$59.16
Value
$59.16
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.96
Value
$46.34
PnL
+$0.38
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
balthazar<$100Invested
$43.93
Value
$43.93
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$29.25
Value
$29.58
PnL
+$0.33
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$19.76
Value
$19.72
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$8.92
Value
$8.87
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.