Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$141.58
-$22.71
73.5¢ → 66¢
-10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $48.58 | $41.33 | -$7.26 | 12% 20-153 (173) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $34.85 | $33.47 | -$1.37 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $36.67 | $29.61 | -$7.06 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $24.3 | $18.9 | -$5.4 | 25% 96-283 (379) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $12.6 | -$1.8 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $5.49 | $5.67 | +$0.18 | 79% 348-95 (443) |
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$48.58
Value
$41.33
PnL
-$7.26
Record
12%
20-153 (173)
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.85
Value
$33.47
PnL
-$1.37
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$36.67
Value
$29.61
PnL
-$7.06
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$18.9
PnL
-$5.4
Record
25%
96-283 (379)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$5.49
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$0.18
Record
79%
348-95 (443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.