Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $530 held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

Total Value

$530.01

Combined PnL

-$6.02

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$509

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$3.84

Down5 traders

Total Value$21.01

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$9.86

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.8¢	$510.92	$504	-$0.66	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 99¢	$6.2	$5.63	-$0.57	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.08	$5.13	+$0.05	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$7.92	$4	-$3.92	50% 2955-2954 (5909)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$11.75	$3.25	-$2.48	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$3	-$2.94	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.45	$2.5	+$2.05	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$2.5	+$2.45	36% 1532-2761 (4293)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$510.92

Value

$504

PnL

-$0.66

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.57

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$7.92

Value

PnL

-$3.92

Record

50%

2955-2954 (5909)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$11.75

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$2.48

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

PnL

-$2.94

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$2.05

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$2.45

Record

36%

1532-2761 (4293)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.