Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Down 29%
1 arb excluded
$558.64
-$535.4
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$533.58 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $502.93 | $500 | +$0.26 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $248.49 | — | -$249.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $30.51 | $31.45 | +$0.94 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $8.82 | $9.19 | +$0.37 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $8.41 | $7 | -$1.41 | 53% 3147-2839 (5986) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 35.2¢ | $3.93 | — | -$3.93 | 43% 2221-2992 (5213) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 65% 2926-1596 (4522) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $3.9 | $6 | +$2.1 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
Invested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$533.58
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Invested
$502.93
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.26
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.51
Value
$31.45
PnL
+$0.94
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$9.19
PnL
+$0.37
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.41
Value
$7
PnL
-$1.41
Record
53%
3147-2839 (5986)
Invested
$3.93
Value
—
PnL
-$3.93
Record
43%
2221-2992 (5213)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
65%
2926-1596 (4522)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.1
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)