Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 63%

Total Value

$52.83

Combined PnL

-$615.2

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares681

Combined PnL-$585.3

Up3 traders

Total Value$52.83

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$29.91

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 48¢	$513.02	—	-$480.04	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$63.07	—	-$63.07	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$62.53	$26.48	-$31.44	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 96.8¢	$20.32	$21	+$0.68	53% 3147-2839 (5986)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 84¢	$4.5	$5.36	+$0.86	50% 1805-1831 (3636)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$3.24	—	-$3.24	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$37.85	—	-$37.85	36% 1532-2761 (4293)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 8.7¢	$1.1	—	-$1.1	48% 2616-2848 (5464)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$513.02

Value

—

PnL

-$480.04

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$63.07

Value

—

PnL

-$63.07

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$62.53

Value

$26.48

PnL

-$31.44

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$20.32

Value

$21

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

3147-2839 (5986)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

1805-1831 (3636)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

—

PnL

-$3.24

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$37.85

Value

—

PnL

-$37.85

Record

36%

1532-2761 (4293)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

—

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

2616-2848 (5464)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0d479c8a...3636ff

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794783000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $26.48

MayorMamdani

Up — $21

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $5.36

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket